At the 2025 Buffalo Private Equity Summit, we brought investors, bankers and advisors together to unpack what is really happening in the market and how people are preparing for 2026.
Deal Flow, Valuations and a Stop-Start Market
Coming into 2025, many expected a strong rebound in deal activity once the election passed. Instead, deal counts remain muted while total dollar volume has been supported by larger transactions and take-privates. Tariffs, stubborn interest rates and global uncertainty have kept some sellers on the sidelines.
We are now hearing consistent reports of pipelines rebuilding. Owners who paused in prior years are returning to the table as rates begin to ease and teams grow more comfortable operating in an uncertain environment. High quality assets with scale and strong management are still commanding premium valuations. Smaller tuck-in deals and add-ons are driving much of the volume in the lower middle market.
Capital Structures, Diligence and the Rise of Private Credit
Private credit continues to shape capital stacks, often displacing traditional senior lenders. As rates ease, some expect a renewed balance between banks and private credit, with more senior plus mezzanine structures coming back into favor. Deal structures are evolving as well, with more rollover equity and earnouts used to bridge valuation gaps.
On the diligence side, longer timelines have allowed buyers to dig deeper into specific risk areas. Reps and warranties insurance has moved from niche tool to standard practice for many transactions.
Succession, AI and Preparing for 2026
Behind the numbers sits a powerful succession story. Aging founders, shifting family priorities and increasing regulatory complexity are driving more conversations about exits, rollups and professional management.
AI is beginning to influence how investors and advisors evaluate companies, accelerating document review and pattern recognition. Yet the message from our speakers is clear. Relationships, sound judgment and a compelling story still drive successful deals.
We see growing energy across the Upstate ecosystem and a cautious optimism that 2026 can unlock the pent-up supply building today.